Richmond, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

549
FXUS61 KAKQ 061844
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
244 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonable temperatures and dry through Saturday.

2) Moisture and rain chances potentially return late this weekend
into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable temperatures and dry through Saturday.

High pressure is centered over the area towards the Great Lakes this
afternoon, allowing for cool temperatures and clear skies today and
tonight. Tonight will be the coolest night of the week (and of the
season so far) due to radiational cooling and the position of the
high pressure. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 40s across
much of the area, with near 50F at the immediate coast. Some upper
30s are possible in rural and typically cooler locations in the
Piedmont. The high pressure will begin shifting offshore Wednesday
with temperatures warming back to near average, which are in the
lower to mid 70s. The Eastern Shore will likely only see highs in
the upper 60s. The high shifts farther offshore Thursday with high
temperatures rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s (potentially mid
80s well inland) ahead of another dry cold front. This cold front
crosses the region Thursday night with temperatures trending down to
near seasonal averages Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions will
continue through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Moisture and rain chances potentially return late this weekend
into early next week.

By late this weekend into early next week, there is potential that
moisture gets pulled northward from the Gulf, in associated with the
probable tropical cyclone, and pushed eastward across the region
ahead of a trough over the mid-Mississippi Valley. There is still
much uncertainty on the path and timing, as the tropical depression
has yet to form (although will likely be named soon). However, most
global models and ensemble systems depict the TC remnants merging
with the upper trough in vicinity of the Mid-South with accumulating
QPF over the local area later Sunday/Monday timeframe. As would be
expected, there is considerable spread between the 10th and 90th
percentile QPF in the 12z/06 ensemble guidance (EPS/GEFS/GEPS).
Temperatures should remain near average late this weekend and early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/06 TAF period. High pressure
remains over the area allowing for clear skies. Generally light
N to NE flow continues this afternoon, before becoming calm to
very light tonight. Winds will shift out of the S to SE
Wednesday morning and increase to ~5-8 kt.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue through much of the week. The next
chance for sub-VFR conditions does not arrive until late
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail for the remainder of the week with high
  pressure in control.

North to northeast winds continue to diminish early this afternoon,
and are averaging 10-15 kt at this hour. Seas are 3-4 ft, with 1-3
ft waves in the Chesapeake Bay. Winds continue to diminish tonight
and become light and somewhat variable as high pressure builds in
from the NW. Winds shift to the south Wednesday and increase to ~15
kt by late afternoon/early evening on the back side of the high
before veering to the SW Wednesday night. A few gusts to 20 kt are
likely on the bay late Wed-Wed night, but wind probs for sustained
18 kt winds are aob 15%. Southwesterly winds diminish Thursday ahead
of another dry cold front. That FROPA occurs overnight Thursday and
shifts the winds back to the N for Friday. Relatively limited cold
advection still looks to preclude widespread SCA-level winds, but a
short/marginal period of SCAs can`t be ruled out before sunrise
Friday. Seas decrease to 2-3 ft by tonight and then hover around 2
ft for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ/KMC
MARINE...ERI